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Agri Pulse

Agri Pulse

April 2020

The Bank of Ireland Agri Pulse for April 2020 paints a subdued picture. The COVID-19 pandemic has imparted a huge shock to the economy and even though farming has been classed as an essential business, reduced demand from overseas customers and the closure of the food service industry at home is taking a toll on the sector.

Production sentiment was at a low ebb in April and compared with August 2019 – when the survey was last carried out – farmers were more pessimistic about the outlook for market prices. Investment plans and growth ambitions held steady though as a no deal Brexit was avoided at the start of this year and the transition period took effect.

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Key Points

  • Sentiment subdued in April
  • COVID-19 concerns to the fore
  • Brexit worries take a step back

Agri Pulse

April 2020

“The COVID-19 shock is being keenly felt by farmers, with seven in ten reporting a negative impact on their business.”

Dr Loretta O’Sullivan
Group Chief Economist
Bank of Ireland

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Farm Profitability

Past 12 Months

Shape Created with Sketch. 17%
42%
41%

Balance -23%

(+15 on previous reading)

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Farm Output

Past 12 Months

Shape Created with Sketch. 24%
54%
23%

Balance +1%

(-6 on previous reading)

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Farm Output

Next 12 Months

Shape Created with Sketch. 18%
51%
31%

Balance -13%

(0 on previous reading)

 

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Input Costs (Excluding Labour)

Past 12 Months

Shape Created with Sketch. 42%
45%
13%

Balance +30%

(-27 on previous reading)

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Market Prices

Next 12 Months

Shape Created with Sketch. 9%
16%
75%

Balance -67%

(-17 on previous reading)

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Investment Plans

Next 12 Months

Shape Created with Sketch. 18%
63%
19%

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Business Ambitions Next 1 to 3 Years

  • Plan on growing 30%
  • Prefer to stay same size 54%
  • Intend to scale down 15%

Agri Pulse

April 2020

Brexit Impact Next 12 Months

  • Significant negative 26%
  • Some negative 45%
  • None 25%
  • Some positive 2%
  • Significant positive 2%

Agri Pulse

April 2020

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES NEXT 1-3 YEARS

  • Significant negative 8%
  • Some negative 38%
  • None 27%
  • Some positive 22%
  • Significant positive 5%

Agri Pulse

April 2020

COVID-19 IMPACT

  • Significant negative 42%
  • Some negative 30%
  • None 20%
  • Some positive 4%
  • Significant positive 4%